Polling by right-leaning firms has exploded this cycle. Maybe they want to be accurate—or maybe they’re trying to create a sense of momentum for Donald Trump.
  • xmunk@sh.itjust.works
    1082·
    26 days ago

    I hope they are, it’d be really nice if Trump dramatically underperformed the current polling.

    I’d probably crack open a bottle of champagne, even.

    • The Snark Urge@lemmy.worldEnglish
      932·
      26 days ago

      You’re missing the trick. The supposition here is that they’re creating a false polling narrative to buttress their eventually allegations of election fraud. This will feed directly into another coup attempt.

      • xmunk@sh.itjust.works
        43·
        26 days ago

        I see the trick… but if all these polls are being falsely produced because Trump is actually ten points behind Harris and it’s inconceivable that he could win… well, they’ll still try and cheat the election but I’d much rather live in that universe rather than what seems to be our universe where the American people legitimately can’t decide between a treasonous, narcissistic, felon and someone… not those things.

        It’d really restore my faith in reality if most people actually saw Trump for what he is… I know they’ll still try and steal the election even if Trump literally only gets five votes in the election and all of them are from people with the last name Trump but it’s genuinely disturbing how close to fascism we are not even a century after giving the last batch of fascists a right trouncing.

        • The Snark Urge@lemmy.worldEnglish
          16·
          26 days ago

          It’s worse than even that imo. I think even if he wins we’ll see a coup attempt, because he’s not playing the same game, he’s trying to end the republic

          • xmunk@sh.itjust.works
            16·
            26 days ago

            Absolutely, when he beat Clinton in 2016 his infantile little bitch of an ego simply could not accept that he lost the popular vote. Remember those years of

            “Yea Donny, somehow you won we all agree on th-”

            ‘No but like these fucking democrats, see, these democrats found extra voters somewhere, they had to… I couldn’t have lost the popular vote, everyone loves me! Immigrants, it had to be Immigrants… millions of immigrants that they snuck over the border to vote. Pelosi! She fucking loves immigrants… must have been immigrants, they’re watching us when we pee, they vote illegally… They’re watching us pee!’

            “Okay Donny, but you know you won right, the popular vote doesn’t even mat-”

            ‘Lies. They lie. Lying Ted I call him. Won it I did. Yes, yes, won the popular vote. They love me. They LOVE ME! Everyone who doesn’t love me… they don’t exist, they can’t, because everyone loves me… Mexicans, they must be Mexicans. Pelosi always sneaking around and watching me. They all love me. You know that right? They only love me.’

            I may have paraphrased a bit but that’s a pretty accurate summary of literally any press conference in his first year in office. Note to performer, please read the part of Donald as a Skaven.

            • vaultdweller013@sh.itjust.works
              4·
              26 days ago

              I wpuld normally call such comparisons unkind but the fact of the matter is the Skaven are just as bad as Trump. Actually maybe he is worse than them since at least they are good at some things, plus they have Thanquil.

        • stringere@sh.itjust.works
          3·
          25 days ago

          not even a century after giving the last batch of fascists a right trouncing.

          Problem is we stopped a couple countries that went full tilt, but left it to fester and didn’t hold the enablers to account.

      • frezik@midwest.social
        31·
        25 days ago

        They can try. They have fewer levers to get there this time. Biden won’t just sit there without calling the National Guard.

  • P_P@lemm.eeEnglish
    73·
    26 days ago

    Yes, they absolutely are. It’s coup 2, electric boogaloo. Foreign actors are also rigging the betting markets. They are creating another narrative they can use to justify stealing the election.

  • _bcron_@lemmy.worldEnglish
    381·
    26 days ago

    If so that’s pretty disastrous for Trump. A lot of people are worried about a 2016 repeat, Trump vastly outperforming the polls, so now a whole lot of people who usually just vote are donating and door knocking. Polls that are favorable for Trump just mobilize Harris supporters

      • kitnaht@lemmy.world
        26·
        26 days ago

        You should be, because there’s more than a 0% chance it happens, and when it does, it’s likely the end of America as we know it.

        • just_another_person@lemmy.worldOP
          6·
          26 days ago

          I fully believe that, but I also know the polls have been absolutely useless since 2016, and P2025 and Rowe are such massive issues, I expect the actual exit polls to be heavily in favor of Democrats.

        • just_another_person@lemmy.worldOP
          42·
          26 days ago

          Because I’ve looked at the actual voting trends over the past 4 years and not polls. Everyone in the media is fearing polls. Polls are no longer useful. The only people answering poll calls are elderly.

          Harris has this on lock for the vote. Whatever Trump and his asshats have planned otherwise is a different story. I do still expect the Biden camp has an entire playbook at the ready since SCOTUS said president can basically do whatever they want. Waiting to see it.

      • Maggoty@lemmy.world
        3·
        25 days ago

        When Trump gives his inauguration speech he’s going to thank you because it was your jinx that put him over the line.

  • snooggums@lemmy.worldEnglish
    371·
    26 days ago

    I don’t think the polls are rigged.

    I think they are straight up lying about the results.

    • Wiz@midwest.social
      111·
      26 days ago

      Ya get more clicks if it’s soooo close! Or make the headline vague to create uncertainty and anxiety. Clicks equals money.

      Headline: “Poll says: One candidate is now losing in Pennsylvania!”

  • ctkatz@lemmy.ml
    151·
    25 days ago

    yes. next question.

    all of these polling aggregation sites regardless of the quality of the the poll will include the data in their forecasts. how many poison pills do you have to put in the water supply before the entire thing is poisoned?

    these operatives figured out well before the eggheads who refuse to question or change their methods that by flooding the zone with shit polls, they not only generate buzz for the results of the poll but they are poll by poll changing the reality that the lazy, access political media will breathlessly SCREAM IN ABSOLUTE TERROR that trump is gaining on harris. these junk polls are simply a method of simultaneous voter suppression and boosting on a race probably only really close in 3 states.

    • Maggoty@lemmy.world
      3·
      25 days ago

      I know some of the aggregators put adjustments on right leaning pollsters. They’ve publicly talked about doing it. And it’s not hard to see outliers when you look at all the polls released.

  • Asafum@feddit.nl
    13·
    26 days ago

    “The keepers of the averages insist that the impact is very minimal. Outfits like FiveThirtyEight; Split Ticket, the Times’ in-house polling tracker; and Nate Silver’s forecast all take methodological steps ostensibly to ensure that “garbage-in” polls don’t lead to “garbage-out” results. These include downgrading the “weight” of polls thought to be systematically biased so they have less influence on the averages than high-quality polls do. (FiveThirtyEight has detailed criteria for determining whether pollsters are high quality, including empirical accuracy and methodological transparency.) Another step is adjusting for a particular pollster’s “house effects” to downplay biases.”

    This has always been the thing that has me concerned. They may have fucked polls, but the aggregation methods have weights to shit pollsters so even if they did give shit polls, the overall result is still “accurate” (Kamala not doing well)

    Another thing mentioned, I didn’t actually consider, but is super fucked up:

    They’re trying to divert Democratic funding away from states by making them appear like a lost cause through shitty polling. Talk about absolute fucking scumbags…

    The last thing mentioned is also infuriating in that Magoos will see a tight race that shows Trump slightly ahead, but if he loses they use that as evidence it was stolen!? So what the fuck happened with Hillarys 95% chance to win then!? Was that stolen? Oh sorry, silly me thinking similar logic should be used in similar situations… It’s just whatever fits your narrative that is the only real valid thing, of course of course… Ffs…

  • twistypencil@lemmy.world
    51·
    25 days ago

    Easier to claim election interference when he loses by a lot, but the polls should the race really close, it’s all a setup for his loss