AI Generated Summary (I’ve been expirimentign with it):
- Kamala Harris had a tough day in the forecast despite gains in national polls.
- She leads by 3.8 points nationally but has a 47.3% chance of winning the Electoral College.
- The model adjusts for convention bounce, assuming her polls are inflated.
- Harris’s numbers may improve if she maintains her current standing.
- A concern is the lack of polls showing her ahead in Pennsylvania, a key state.
- Recent polls show Pennsylvania as a tie or slightly favoring Trump.
- Harris has a 17% chance of winning the popular vote but losing the Electoral College.
- RFK’s dropout and endorsement of Trump may impact her in Rust Belt states.
- Tim Walz has had a strong rollout as Harris’s VP, but there’s speculation about Josh Shapiro.
Wouldn’t this basically mean
Electoral loss = 0.527
Then within the electoral loss odds, there’s a 0.17 chance she wins the popular vote so it would be around
Electoral Loss + Popular loss= 0.357
Electoral Loss + popular win = 0.17
So she has 35.7% odds of losing the popular vote and thus is 64.3% likely to win the popular vote (assuming there is no data that shows her losing popular vote but winning election)