I also suspect that the bird flu (H5N1) is not (as of yet, at the time this post was written…) likely to mutate to spread in a human-to-human context.
If you are infected with multiple flu strains at the same time, the viruses can recombine and yield a new strain. That is substantially more chance to get a human-to-human transmissible H5N1 than just by mutation alone (which is still something that should not be underestimated - flu mutates like crazy). There is a reason why virologists warn about H5N1 as the likely candidate for the next pandemic.
Just because it can, does not mean it will. I’ve yet to see any hard evidence of probabilities either; but I welcome any evidence one might present to that effect. I am always skeptical of science news reporting; as oftentimes they blow things out of proportion.
If you are infected with multiple flu strains at the same time, the viruses can recombine and yield a new strain. That is substantially more chance to get a human-to-human transmissible H5N1 than just by mutation alone (which is still something that should not be underestimated - flu mutates like crazy). There is a reason why virologists warn about H5N1 as the likely candidate for the next pandemic.
Just because it can, does not mean it will. I’ve yet to see any hard evidence of probabilities either; but I welcome any evidence one might present to that effect. I am always skeptical of science news reporting; as oftentimes they blow things out of proportion.
Just because my house can burn down, doesn’t mean it will, so fire extinguishers and smoke detectors are just a waste of money.
Is the probability zero?
No?
Then if enough people get infected, it absolutely will.