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Cake day: March 3rd, 2024

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  • That’s still the lowest end of RCP8.5. Many are projecting that we could be on RCP4.5 once we reach where the pathways would diverge (2050), the problem with that is it assumes some large scale CCS and a flatlining of emissions (net zero). If those happen, then 3 degrees might be a top end and we’ll only have a small amount of catastrophe(?!).

    My disbelief is a number of things - human nature to change is a big one, I can’t see us changing much without a huge motivational reason (read major disasters and/or population decrease from impacts). Another is the physics of CCS, the scale needed for any large effect is just beyond anything we can do, and I think it might be far more than just the energy requirements, so say a fusion breakthrough may not improve the abilities. Lastly, the feedbacks that will be set off as we go into 2 degrees will take over the path the Earth’s environment changes towards, and we can’t stop them.

    We need to continue to talk about heavy reductions in emissions, which also means lessening consumption and growth of everything. Not only to reduce the future results, but to prepare for living in a harsher world where that kind of society can’t exist. We’re in an extinction event, and we better pre-adapt before it’s necessary otherwise we’ll be one of the species. That may already be a foregone conclusion, but it will be a certainty if we continue how we’ve been going.



  • The scary ones always end with a hopeful “but if we can start to do something…”

    I’m actually encouraged by the negative trend of articles recently. The first step is always acknowledging the problem. The happy endings downplay the facts, so they have to stop.

    My prediction though is that we’ll set 2.0 C as a new limit. I seem to remember long ago 1.0 C was warned as a point we didn’t want to cross, but 1.5 C was the mark when it became mainstream news all the time. Turns out 1.0 C was always the real limit…



  • It’s possible the idea that they ran a “not Trump” campaign is true enough, and that was part of the failure vs. being more to the left or vocal or any number of other things suggested. But the very fact that “not Trump” made people not show up and throw the election to him, or worse vote FOR him, says a lot about the state of the country.

    I get it, people are hurting economically and somehow get blinded into promises that magic will happen. But Trump? Anyone voting this time around was around when he was in office the first time…are we that short memory? Yeah, we apparently are…repeating the same thing over and over expecting different results. And that can be applied to both sides, but one of them was the same guy.