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30 minutes agoSome people have a gene that makes them hyper-sensitive to caffeine. You either try lowering the dose or just no amount may work for you.
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Joined 1 year ago
Cake day: July 1st, 2023
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116·20 minutes agoBiden had 1 long-shot chance to bridge echo-chambers and show the country he can lead. To reach those undecided swing-state voters.
It’s why he took this debate. Because he was already losing them.
And he blew it to such a catastrophic level it’s not impacting congressional down-ballot races already.
Fun fact: Biden now shares the title of Ford, Carter, HW Bush, and Trump who were incumbent presidents who trailed in polls both before and after the first debate… All of whom lost reelection.
72·1 day agoSo I just want to be clear about something. Press Secretary, Jean-Pierre said yesterday (as she often repeats per their messaging): “Biden’s record speaks for itself.”
I want to go like, “Hi, Press Secretary. Quick follow-up: If it speaks for itself, then why is Biden losing in every battleground state with an aggregate national approval rating of 37%?”
It doesn’t seem that letting it speak for itself is working.
Thanks for that clarification. I was trying to reconcile the differences between the models and couldn’t even find info in the Wikipedia article.
About 5% of all Americans spend some amount of time in prison, fun fact.
Yep, totally official move of the president covered by immunity, if I’m reading the Court right!
Well said. The number of down-votes on hard truths like this submission but a complete lack of substantive argument prove they’re in denial.
I can get into deeper detail as I’ve done elsewhere in my recent comment history, but this DNC member of 30 years nails it. Watch the second half in particular, but the whole clip is relevant: https://youtu.be/DtmZjFBMU90
This is the most important video out there right now.
Edit: I love how you down-voted before you could’ve ever possibly viewed the clip. Truly, exceptional open mind you’ve got.
Blind loyalists to blue guy instead of orange guy, devoid of evidence or reason to support their position… Mostly because they’re too skittish to promote the obviously better course of action. Big time bandwagoneers.
Yes true, but the question is: do uninformed swing-voters in battleground states feel this way?
At the moment Biden is losing in every one of them.
Friendly reminder 2020 was won by only 40,000 voters across 3 states. And Biden is significantly underperforming his 2020 run.
Well it ain’t much, but it’s the best news this past week.
I’m going to enjoy not being in prison this July 4th :)
Of course the Kremlin, and Israel as well as other state actors are; but the obvious question then becomes — what is the Biden campaign actually doing to offset that effect? They are losing the battle and time is running out.
For how long this took — for the mere fact they took this case — and given their previous rulings, I’m more stunned the experts are stunned.
I’ll be honest, Linkerbaan — and you may know this from our previous discussions — I can even see the high-stakes situation with Israel and not like it but understand why in the grand scheme of politics (AIPAC, Jewish American voters, and the risk of withholding arms and then a false-flag terrorist attack occurs on Israeli soil, only to cause an immediate end of Biden’s campaign and an installation of someone FAR more pro-genocide)… But nevertheless, your point raises something I think we can both agree on: Ditching Biden also helps, as Mehdi Hasan has pointed out, ditch the baggage of Israeli genocide complicity.
Before going forward, let me be clear: I want to be convinced that we’re not fucked. I really do. The past three days I’ve gone into detail about how I think we’re fucked and looking for anyone to make a sound, data-driven argument that shows we are not. I’ve yet to be convinced by one, and bear in mind I voted for Biden once and would vote for a corpse if it meant preventing the convicted felon getting keys to the WH again.
There is ample evidence that a not insignificant amount of swing voters either saw past the old man voice to what he was actually saying and standing for, as well as recognized how badly Trump did, even though literally everyone only focuses on Biden, just like always.
Please show me these! Because these are all the surveys I’ve so far seen:
Post-Debate: “72 Percent Say Biden Unfit Mentally, Cognitively.”
Post-Debate: “Voters think Harris is more fit than Biden to run the country”
Post-Debate: “Swing state voters react to presidential debate, Biden’s weak performance”
Post-Debate Focus Group: “Undecided voter focus group leans toward Trump after debate”
Let’s face reality:
- Biden is 10.5 points nationally below where he was at this time in 2020 in polling versus Trump.
- Biden is currently losing in nearly every single battleground state.
- Biden is losing a significant number of Black and Latino voters compared to his 2020 run.
- Biden’s aggregate approval ratings for Presidency are 37.9% with 56.3% disapproval.
To me I view it as a known loss versus a known risky chance. At this point, personally and given all the data I’ve thus far presented, I am that convinced that we will lose. Polling shows people deeply unsatisfied with the current candidate. I think critical swing-state voters would just be happy to vote for a fresh face that is younger. Like Mehdi Hasan said, “Americans like new shit.”
So I don’t know how how you can say with a straight face that Biden is more successful while simultaneously dodging the obvious fact that there is a significant decline in physical and cognitive performance. So let’s recap:
We can downplay all we want, but this wasn’t “one bad debate,” for it wasn’t even about the debat eitself but the revelation of Biden’s senility piercing through echo-chambers. For the exact same reason Biden ASKED for this debate to reach important voters and show he’s mentally fit (akin to the SOTU) and show Trump is not, it backfired 100% and there will not be another chance to reach 50 million voters at prime-tme. Trump has no obligation to take another debate; ending on that note is all that is needed.
- Biden took this debate because he is currently losing and needed to break the stagnant, steadily-declining polls.
- Biden’s performance is worse than his 2020 run and in fact, worse than Hillary’s losing run in 2016 by every single metric I can find.
- There is a MASSIVE amount of risk that Biden’s condition deteriorates more rapidly between now and November, and following the convention there is no more backing out.
If I was a Republican strategist, I’d be doing everything in my power to keep Biden in the race because I know he’d be the weakest opponent compared to a fresh, younger face. Nate Silver, Ezra Klein, even former Obama/Biden staffers from PSA clearly agree.
Now if you agree with this and you say, “okay I see your points, but how can anyone else do better?” then we’ll move on to that.
Remake this meme for tankies where instead of vote, it just says, “Tankies say ‘get gunz!’”
With all due respect if we’re speaking in terms of certainty, I am 100% certain that Biden will give Trump the election—and I guarantee I have more evidence to support that statement than anyone does to the opposite conclusion. Staying this course is a disaster in slow-motion. The Titanic already hit the iceberg and now we’re just sinking for 4 months straight. We either jump ship now, or we are going to lose, or we start gearing up for 2028 now.
For once, I just want Democrats to take a fucking bold brazen move. Seriously. This is why Democrats never control the narrative because they’re always too gun-shy to do the right thing and stand by their own beliefs.
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Ditch the 81-year-old clearly suffering cognitive decline; run what would be a viral media frenzy that is an open convention and an American Idol contest for the American people.
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Or fuck it: AOC will be old enough to be President this year. Even if she can’t get the nomination, she should start campaigning literally today until 2028, just like Trump does.
Edit: Sorry, going to move this to the top of the thread because it’s too important:
Before going forward, let me be clear: I want to be convinced that we’re not fucked. I really do. The past three days I’ve gone into detail about how I think we’re fucked and looking for anyone to make a sound, data-driven argument that shows we are not. I’ve yet to be convinced by one, and bear in mind I voted for Biden once and would vote for a corpse if it meant preventing the convicted felon getting keys to the WH again.
There is ample evidence that a not insignificant amount of swing voters either saw past the old man voice to what he was actually saying and standing for, as well as recognized how badly Trump did, even though literally everyone only focuses on Biden, just like always.
Please show me these! Because these are all the surveys I’ve so far seen:
Post-Debate: “72 Percent Say Biden Unfit Mentally, Cognitively.”
Post-Debate: “Voters think Harris is more fit than Biden to run the country”
Post-Debate: “Swing state voters react to presidential debate, Biden’s weak performance”
Post-Debate Focus Group: “Undecided voter focus group leans toward Trump after debate”
Let’s face reality:
- Biden is 10.5 points nationally below where he was at this time in 2020 in polling versus Trump.
- Biden is currently losing in nearly every single battleground state.
- Biden is losing a significant number of Black and Latino voters compared to his 2020 run.
- Biden’s aggregate approval ratings for Presidency are 37.9% with 56.3% disapproval.
To me I view it as a known loss versus a known risky chance. At this point, personally and given all the data I’ve thus far presented, I am that convinced that we will lose. Polling shows people deeply unsatisfied with the current candidate. I think critical swing-state voters would just be happy to vote for a fresh face that is younger. Like Mehdi Hasan said, “Americans like new shit.”
So I don’t know how how you can say with a straight face that Biden is more successful while simultaneously dodging the obvious fact that there is a significant decline in physical and cognitive performance. So let’s recap:
We can downplay all we want, but this wasn’t “one bad debate,” for it wasn’t even about the debat eitself but the revelation of Biden’s senility piercing through echo-chambers. For the exact same reason Biden ASKED for this debate to reach important voters and show he’s mentally fit (akin to the SOTU) and show Trump is not, it backfired 100% and there will not be another chance to reach 50 million voters at prime-tme. Trump has no obligation to take another debate; ending on that note is all that is needed.
- Biden took this debate because he is currently losing and needed to break the stagnant, steadily-declining polls.
- Biden’s performance is worse than his 2020 run and in fact, worse than Hillary’s losing run in 2016 by every single metric I can find.
- There is a MASSIVE amount of risk that Biden’s condition deteriorates more rapidly between now and November, and following the convention there is no more backing out.
If I was a Republican strategist, I’d be doing everything in my power to keep Biden in the race because I know he’d be the weakest opponent compared to a fresh, younger face. Nate Silver, Ezra Klein, even former Obama/Biden staffers from PSA clearly agree.
Now if you agree with this and you say, “okay I see your points, but how can anyone else do better?” then we’ll move on to that.
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I’ll never forget moving out west on a cross-country road trip with my mom and little sister. We vetted most of our hotels pretty well but had to make an unplanned stop at a red roof inn on Oklahoma. What a complete shithole. Dingy, flickering half-lit hallways. Sketchiest people. I slept with a knife under my pillow.
There are two ways to look at this. In one respect you can say why the hell are so many Americans still not grasping just how bad Trump is?
But then you need to assume the responsibility of being the more informed party and adjust your strategy not for the electorate you want but for the electorate you have.
And that electorate is demanding a better candidate for Democrats to appeal to said uninformed undecided swing state voters who will decide this election.