In the street with many cameras and witnesses, pretty high chance.

lets say, hypothetically some rando walks up and caps you, exactly like Luigi did the CEO. it took, probably, millions, or hundreds of thousands of dollars in terms of cop-hours, and a lot of that is straight up overtime. then there’s things like draining the pond in central park, or whatever. the divers. the chasing down faulty leads.

and none of that was actually useful.

what got him in the end was the media campaign pushing his face (well. supposedly his face. there’s holes in that story.) in front of everyone. And the only reason it had massive media campaign was because Luigi whacked some asshole who was a real prick, even by Health Care CEO standards, and that made it news.

they’re actually more likely to figure out the other, because there’s going to be a handful of people who have access to your place. Whoever has keys becomes suspect. Or whoever was in the place. at the very least, no forced entry means you knew the person, at least enough to open the door for them. (Pizza guy?) that’s more than they had on Luigi until the McDonalds lady called it in.

(Seriously. Unless they have a continuous footage of him, spliced together from one camera to the next, never leaving it, then they matched Luigi’s face to a pair of eyebrows on grainy video. Sure they might have DNA or something more now, but those photos were a joke. as they say. “he fit a description”. a blurry, pixelated description.)